Bitcoin - The Infrastructure of Capital in a Digital Age
Why we’re not selling into strength - but allocating for the future.
Bitcoin isn’t in a bubble. It’s in a transition.
A transition from misunderstood speculation to institutional backbone. In June 2025, the evidence is overwhelming: governments are building reserves, corporations are deploying treasuries, and regulators are finally catching up to the asset’s role in a maturing system.
The price has consolidated under $110K - but that’s noise.
This isn’t about whether BTC hits $115K or $120K this summer. It’s about where it lands by 2028, 2032, and beyond.
In a Nutshell
Bitcoin is undergoing institutional adoption at scale: family offices, sovereign strategies, and regulated ETF flows.
Price structure is bullish, with consolidation above key support ($106K) and no evidence of topping.
We are not selling rallies. We’re building a core position.
Our base case sees Bitcoin as an appreciating monetary reserve over the next decade, not a trade.
Fundamental Analysis
1. Institutional Capital Is No Longer Waiting
The $1B ProCap merger to create a Bitcoin treasury company is just the latest example of balance-sheet adoption. Major U.S. and UK corporates are following MicroStrategy’s playbook. Even state actors are accumulating - Texas has officially aligned reserves with Bitcoin strategy.
Family offices are allocating up to 5% of long-term portfolios. Ric Edelman, one of the most respected advisors in the U.S., is now recommending a 40% Bitcoin allocation to select clients.
This is no longer a fringe view. It’s an allocation theme.
2. Monetary Infrastructure Is Finally Catching Up
The U.S. Congress has rolled out legislation that gives banks legal clarity for crypto custody.
The MiCA framework in Europe has created a regulated playing field.
UK regulators are considering lifting the ban on retail Bitcoin ETNs - a move that could further institutionalize demand.
In short: regulatory risk is declining, not rising.
3. Supply Is Tightening, But Not Gone
Fidelity’s June report highlights a powerful trend: more Bitcoin is moving into long-term dormant wallets than is being newly mined. On average, 566 BTC/day is entering “ancient supply” (unmoved for 10+ years), while only 450 BTC/day is being mined post-halving. This means old supply is disappearing faster than new coins are entering circulation.
Over 72% of circulating BTC is now classified as illiquid - held off exchanges, with no recent movement. That’s the highest level in over two years and consistent with prior bull market setups.
But we’re not in a perfect vacuum.
Some long-term holders have been moving coins - particularly around macro events like the 2024 U.S. election. Miner outflows, while reduced, haven’t disappeared entirely. Selling pressure has slowed from ~23K BTC/day earlier this year to ~6K/day now.
So the picture is clear: supply isn’t gone. It’s just more selective, more long-term, and more sensitive to macro catalysts than ever before.
Fundamental Conclusion
Bitcoin has achieved structural legitimacy. It is no longer a contrarian bet - it’s a core macro allocation. Institutions, advisors, and policymakers are all signaling one thing: Bitcoin has a role to play as a monetary infrastructure layer.
Technical Analysis
Weekly Structure: Secular Uptrend Intact
Elliott Wave structure suggests we are completing a primary Wave (5) with price respecting all fib and support extensions.
Weekly EMA stack remains bullish; consolidation above the 0.382 retracement ($98K–$106K) suggests this is accumulation, not exhaustion.
Daily View: Compression Before Expansion
Price has moved sideways for over 30 days just below $109K.
Multiple fib clusters (0.382, 0.5, 0.618) between $98K–$106K continue to offer structural buy zones.
RSI holding mid-range; MACD resetting, not diverging.
Intraday: Clean Impulses, Healthy Pullbacks
2h and 4h charts show clear 5-wave impulsive structures into $108K.
Pullbacks remain corrective and shallow—retracing 0.382 levels at most.
This is what constructive price action looks like in a trending macro asset.
Technical Conclusion
There is no technical evidence of a major top. Price is consolidating within a long-term uptrend, with higher lows and structurally healthy pullbacks. The dominant trend remains up, and until the structure is violated (break of $98K), there is no basis to reduce long exposure.
Investment Approach
We are allocating - not trading.
Long-Term Core Position (Strategic)
Build exposure in tranches between $106K and $98K.
Hold without target-based exits.
Reassess only if structural support ($98K) fails on volume.
Portfolio Allocation
5% of long-term capital for most diversified portfolios.
For institutional or high-conviction investors: 10-20% acceptable depending on risk profile.
Rebalancing Policy
No rebalancing until Bitcoin represents more than 15-20% of portfolio NAV.
Add on volatility spikes or regulatory misreads that offer underpriced entries.
This is not a tactical trade - it’s a structural bet on a new system.
Final Words
Bitcoin is not a commodity. It’s not a tech stock. It’s a protocol for monetary settlement at scale.
The charts support it. The fundamentals reinforce it. And the institutions are coming in waves.
We’re not selling into strength - we’re accumulating weakness. With time, capital, and conviction.
Invest with purpose. Build for the long term.